Independents saw 10.5% sales decline in November but still up on pre-pandemic levels, says top analyst

The sharp drop in sales for independents was part of a wider picture of falling sales of 3.8% for the grocery sector as a whole, but almost all grocery stores are still selling more than they did pre-pandemic.

The analyst put the year-on-year fall down to restaurants and cafes being open this year, which meant that customers are sometimes eating out and putting slightly less in their shopping baskets.

Kantar also highlighted grocery inflation, which at 3.2% is at the highest rate since June 2020.

This means that the average price of a Christmas dinner for four is 3.4% up on last year at £27.48.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: “Grocery sales are now being compared against November 2020 when we had tighter restrictions across Scotland and Wales and the second lockdown in England.

“Circumstances are very different this year. With people back in the office a few days a week and restaurants and cafés open, we’re putting less in our grocery baskets for cooking at home and as a result, the average shop size has shrunk by 8% this month versus last year.”

Kantar also believes that the next stage of the pandemic could see shoppers change the way that they shop.

McKevitt said: “Our excitement about Christmas this year has been slightly tempered as news of the Omicron Covid-19 variant has emerged.

“Online grocery sales fell by 12.5% in the four weeks to late November, as we compare against more orders last year during the second lockdown.

“As concerns grow over rising case numbers, we expect some people will prefer to shop online again to limit their visits to stores.”